In a recent study, researchers from Northwestern University have examined the relationship between social media activity by authority figures and the escalation of violence during protests. The study, published in the Journal of Royal Society Interface, highlights patterns linking online behavior to shifts from peaceful demonstrations to violent actions.

The research was conducted by Brian Uzzi and Brayden G. King, both faculty members at Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management. Uzzi is the Richard L. Thomas Professor of Leadership and co-director of the Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO) and the Ryan Institute on Complexity at Kellogg (RIC). King holds the Max McGraw Chair of Management and the Environment and is a Professor of Management and Organizations.

"Our research found that then-President Donald Trump’s tweets on Jan. 6 explained changes in the magnitude of violence, armed conflict, and chemical weapon deployment over the course of the day," Uzzi stated. "The timing and sentiment of Trump’s tweets predicted surges in both the ferocity and length of rioters' lethal force and their use of weapons. Trump’s tweets also predicted the number and sentiment of tweeted communications among rioters and online observers during the insurrection."

The study utilized data from live videos, Trump's tweets, rally speeches, other rally speeches, and #StopTheSteal tweets. Granger regression was employed to analyze whether one time-series data could predict another, particularly focusing on links between tweets, speeches, severity, duration of violence outbreaks, and weapon usage.

King added: "Our findings show that an authority figure’s online activity and emotional rhetoric are associated with a peaceful protest turning violent. This study is one of the first to show a direct link between an elected leader’s social media activity and the violent behavior of their followers."

The study is titled “Quantifying Social Media Predictors of Violence During the January 6 US Capitol Insurrection Using Granger Causality.” Qinghua Lee also contributed as a research specialist.

For interviews with Professors Uzzi or King, contact Shanice Harris at shanice.harris@northwestern.edu.