A new study from Northwestern Medicine has introduced an online calculator designed to help adults aged 30 to 59 estimate their risk of developing heart disease over the next 30 years. The tool, which is free and based on the American Heart Association’s PREVENT equations, uses common health measures such as blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking status, diabetes history, and kidney function to calculate a person's percentile rank among peers of the same age and sex.
“We are all used to percentiles for standardized testing or when checking our children’s growth charts,” said Sadiya Khan, senior study author and Magerstadt Professor of Cardiovascular Epidemiology at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. “But this is the first time percentiles have been translated and applied to long-term risk for heart disease. When a patient sees they are in the 90th percentile, we hope that this will serve as a wake-up call that risk starts early and prevention efforts and activities can reduce that risk and should not be put off.”
The study was published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology. Researchers analyzed data from nearly 8,700 U.S. adults aged 30 to 59 who were free of cardiovascular disease when they entered the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Results showed men had higher long-term risk than women at every age; at age 45, median risk was found to be 16% for men compared with 10% for women. However, Khan noted that “risk for heart disease for women catches up with time. This is why having sex-specific tools like this percentile calculator is important.”
Khan emphasized that while cardiovascular problems may seem distant for people in their thirties or forties, long-term risks can be significant even if short-term risks appear low. She said earlier prediction could help clinicians prioritize preventive actions such as behavioral changes or starting medications sooner.
“We don’t want to wait until it is too late, and someone has had an event. Consider it like saving for retirement,” she said. “We have to start now.”
Khan also highlighted how presenting risk as percentiles might make information more relatable: “A 30-year time horizon is difficult for most people to grasp,” she said. “Therefore, we hope that being able to compare your long-term risk to others in the same age makes the information more relatable, and therefore, actionable.” She added: “Presenting risk as percentiles can also be more helpful to motivate patients because they see how their risk compares with peers, much like standardized tests or growth charts put these measurements in context.”
The tool is intended as a conversation starter between patients and clinicians rather than a substitute for clinical care.