Severe drought and climate change have impacted groundwater aquifers worldwide. In response, an Illinois Institute of Technology researcher is collaborating to aid California's agriculture industry in redistributing this dwindling resource. Igor Cialenco, a professor of applied mathematics, has secured a National Science Foundation grant alongside Mike Ludkovski, a professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Their goal is to create a mathematical solution for groundwater distribution.
“There is a real risk of exhausting groundwater supplies in parts of the world unless an equitable and adaptive water allocation mechanism is implemented—one that balances multiple objectives while preserving economic viability,” Cialenco states. He notes that although groundwater management has been extensively studied by various experts, there is no existing mathematical theory to guide water allocations.
California has initiated regional groundwater planning through the California Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014. This act led to the formation of Groundwater Sustainability Agencies responsible for overseeing annual water budgets. The resulting Groundwater Sustainability Plans require stakeholders to address aquifer replenishment, consumption, conservation, and trading water rights while considering environmental demands.
The SGMA outlines long-term plans for water consumption and most new agencies set individual pumping limits and allow trading through bilateral transactions in permits. According to Cialenco, addressing this complex problem involves considering future precipitation volatility, stakeholder conflicts, and policymaking within a stochastic modeling framework.
“To be clear, our goal is not to ‘gamify' water allocation or to support financial trading of water,” he explains. “Rather, we set out to develop a mathematically rigorous analysis of water allocation and price formation.”
Cialenco highlights the challenge in creating models relevant to policymakers yet mathematically sound. “We are thrilled to be at the forefront," he adds about pioneering research efforts involving diverse students who will work on model calibration using real data and algorithm development for solving control problems.
The initial focus will be on California due to available datasets but aims extend globally as groundwater depletion remains a universal issue needing scalable solutions.
Disclaimer: Research reported in this publication is supported by the National Science Foundation under Award Number DMS-2407549. This content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Science Foundation.