Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, countries experienced increased mortality rates. While many have since recovered, new research from Northwestern University indicates that California has not returned to pre-pandemic life expectancy levels. The study was led by Hannes Schwandt, an associate professor at Northwestern's School of Education and Social Policy.
American life expectancy has been declining compared to other developed nations since 1990. It fell during the pandemic but showed improvement in 2022-2023. Although U.S. estimates for 2024 are unavailable, data for California show a significant decrease in life expectancy since 2019, with a deficit of .86 years remaining in 2024.
“Usually, we expect a quick rebound after the temporal shocks of an event like a pandemic," Schwandt said. "The fact that four years after the pandemic we still see a deficit compared to 2019 is quite concerning.”
In 2021, life expectancy was at its lowest within the five-year period studied. COVID-19 accounted for most of this decline. Life expectancy increased slightly in 2022-2023 but remained below pre-pandemic levels.
Researchers used data from the California Comprehensive Death Files and population counts from the American Community Survey to calculate mortality rates and life expectancy for various demographic groups. The study found higher deficits among Hispanic and Black populations compared to Asian and white populations.
Schwandt noted that drug overdoses significantly contributed to the life expectancy deficit, particularly among Black populations due to greater exposure to fentanyl. “Overdose death had increased during the pandemic," Schwandt said.
The study also suggested cardiovascular disease as another factor contributing to sluggish recovery in life expectancy numbers. “Increased mortality due to cardiovascular causes could be an explanation for the deficit,” Schwandt stated.
Schwandt plans to expand his research once U.S.-wide data becomes available: “I’d like to analyze the data in rich and poor populations in other developed countries and compare them to the U.S."
The study titled “The Failure of Life Expectancy to Fully Rebound to Prepandemic Levels” included co-authors Janet Currie from Princeton University; Till von Wachter and Jonathan Kowarski from UCLA; and Steven H. Woolf from Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine.