When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" on February 24, 2022, University of Chicago Professor Konstantin Sonin described the full-scale invasion of Ukraine as "the end of Russia as we know it." Sonin, who has been critical of Putin's regime and is now in exile, was sentenced in absentia to eight and a half years in prison in February 2024. Despite this, he published the case documents against him online.
As the conflict nears its third anniversary, Sonin shared his views on the current situation in Ukraine and the potential impact of Donald Trump's election on peace efforts. He stated that "so far this year, the Ukrainian Army has mostly defended what it holds," noting that both armies have suffered significant losses. The war remains at a stalemate with Russian forces advancing slowly.
Russia currently occupies less than 20% of Ukraine's territory as defined in 1991. Most occupied areas were taken before the full-scale war began, including Crimea in 2014. According to Sonin, "the gains made by Russia have been turned into just a sort of wasteland."
Sonin believes Putin continues the war because he enjoys it and benefits from increased wealth among those around him due to military production and profiteering. He also uses the conflict to justify political repression.
Regarding negotiations, Sonin expressed doubt about their potential success: "Putin is the main obstacle for negotiations." He suggested an outside chance exists for a military coup similar to events during the Russian Revolution or World War II but noted Putin's ideological stance makes negotiation unlikely.
Discussing Trump's re-election prospects, Sonin remarked that "Putin seems to have high expectations for Donald Trump—unreasonable ones." However, he highlighted broad American support for Ukraine and doubted Trump could meet Putin's hopes.
Reflecting on his experiences teaching in Ukraine with Scott Gehlbach, Sonin said he plans to return unless Ukraine reaches an unexpectedly favorable settlement with Russia.
The insights were adapted from a story originally appearing on the Harris School of Public Policy website.